If mortgage rates drop even a little, their effect on the shelter CPI component is going to stop it from declining. Any drop in mortgage rates is being met by a surge in buying (increased affordability) with no corresponding surge in selling (mortgage rate still significantly higher than existing locked in mortgages). There's a significant lag involved, but house prices do effect people's impression of what they can collect in rent (shelter CPI component).
If mortgage rates drop even a little, their effect on the shelter CPI component is going to stop it from declining. Any drop in mortgage rates is being met by a surge in buying (increased affordability) with no corresponding surge in selling (mortgage rate still significantly higher than existing locked in mortgages). There's a significant lag involved, but house prices do effect people's impression of what they can collect in rent (shelter CPI component).