The Iran Energy Playbook

The Iranian conflict continues to spiral, and we are no longer looking at a marginal disruption. We are witnessing a structural break in the global energy system.

As Wood Mackenzie’s Alexander Araman noted today, the halt of LNG production in Qatar - representing ~19% of global supply - has moved from a “temporary outage” to a fundamental reset of the market. While the consensus previously expected a return to balance by mid-2026, those assumptions have evaporated.

The math is stark: every month this disruption continues removes roughly 1.5% of global annual LNG supply. After six months, the market becomes structurally short. We are shifting from a period of volatility into a period of physical scarcity and sustained repricing.

To help you navigate this transition, we’ve put together a primer on the metrics and companies best positioned to weather this reset across the hydrocarbon value chain. Below the fold, we highlight 5 companies we believe have the best leverage to this supply/demand crunch—specifically those capable of filling the 19% hole left by Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG.