Hyperscaler Capex, Open-Weight Models & Iran

In today's note we look at Google's cloud reacceleration and the market's focus on capex — we present a framework on how much runway the hyperscalers have left before credit markets start pushing back. Moonshot's Kimi K3 release complicates the old "open models are cheap" thesis, which is bullish for the rest of the AI stack. On the geopolitical side, Trump's Iran playbook has worked before, but it's running into worse fundamentals and a shrinking margin for error. All of it below.