Grizzle Hard Money Conference (Summary Notes)
We hosted our twice annual Hard Money (Gold/Silver & Bitcoin) conference in June and are coming to you with summary notes of the most important takeaways from the conference.
The speaker list included global strategists, ETF industry analysts, portfolio managers and company CEOs and the takeaways were both thought provoking and extremely valuable for anyone managing portfolios (for themselves or others) and for those looking for guidance on where the economy and the stock market goes next.
Grizzle Hard Money Conference 2025 Comprehensive Summary
Chris Wood – Global Equity Strategist, Jefferies
Macro View – The End of Monetary Orthodoxy:
Wood argues we are in a structurally new environment where fiscal dominance is overriding central bank independence. Governments are now prioritizing full employment and deficit financing over inflation control.
He views recent Fed and ECB policies as politically driven—"monetary policy has been hijacked by politics," and sees little chance of a return to inflation-target orthodoxy within the next decade.
Reignition of the Inflation Cycle:
Drawing parallels to the 1970s, Wood believes the disinflationary era of 1981–2020 is over.
Forecasts rolling inflation spikes with average headline CPI > 4 % through 2027.
Argues central banks will tolerate higher inflation as long as it allows them to "inflate away" excessive sovereign debt.
Hard Asset Allocation:
Wood advocates strong exposure to real assets, including:
Gold: Core 10–15% portfolio weight; backed by central bank accumulation and currency devaluation.
Energy equities: Focused on companies with low debt, strong free cash flow, and long-duration reserves.
Commodities & uranium: Acknowledges uranium as the most asymmetric energy bet in the market.
Bitcoin: "Insurance against fiat failure" with long-term upside, especially in Asia and EM wealth preservation.
Equities Outlook:
Avoids high-multiple growth and unprofitable tech—"These are the new long-duration bonds."
Likes quality cyclicals in Asia (especially India, Indonesia, and Vietnam).
Sees Japan as a key relative winner due to BOJ’s policy divergence and structural reforms.
Currency Positioning:
Bearish USD over the medium term; sees gold and select EM currencies as eventual beneficiaries.
Believes China is quietly de-dollarizing reserves and that future commodity trade settlement may shift toward CNY or gold-linked structures.
Greed & Fear Portfolio (as of June 2025):
25% global energy producers
15% gold & silver bullion
10% uranium equities
10% Asia ex-Japan cyclical equities
10% Bitcoin + other digital assets
10% Japan small-cap value
20% cash + 1–3 year T-bills (dry powder for rebalancing)
Tracy Shuchart, Founder – Hilltower Resource Advisors
Central Bank Gold Demand: Gold now makes up ~20% of central bank reserves globally, second only to the U.S. dollar (46%). Central banks are aggressively buying gold, regardless of price, with 11 consecutive months of net inflows. This demand trend began accelerating after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gold Miners vs. Gold Price: Gold is up ~18% YTD in 2025, but miners have significantly outperformed. GDX and similar ETFs are up 52–55%, with Newmont specifically up 44% YTD. Tracy attributes this to:
Operational Leverage: With gold above $3,200–$3,300/oz and production costs stable at $1,200–$1,600/oz, miners see expanded margins.
Cost Management: Miners are keeping inflationary cost growth to ~7–8%.
Low Energy Prices: Cheaper oil improves margins.
Supply Constraints: JPMorgan forecasts a 500-ton gold supply deficit in 2025.
Valuation Potential: Gold at $4,100/oz could boost EBITDA by 40–50% for producers.
Silver Market Outlook:
Supply Deficit: Expected 150–250 million oz deficit in 2025.
Industrial Demand: Surging due to solar, EVs, semiconductors, AI data centers.
Tight Physical Market: Declining grades in Peru and Mexico, permitting delays.
Catch-Up Potential: Gold-silver ratio >85, well above historic ~65. Silver could rally faster when it starts moving.
New Show Announcement: "Pay Dirt Compass" – a weekly X Spaces series hosted by Tracy and Grizzle to help investors find high quality but interesting junior miners. Every show will feature two miners who make a pitch to investors about why investors should be buying them. A quick way for investors to source potential mining investments.
Leigh Goehring – Managing Partner, Goehring & Rozencwajg
Gold Outlook:
Gold is up 30% YoY; miners up ~50%.
Central banks have bought >1,000 tons/year for three years running.
2025 expected to be the fourth consecutive year of massive central bank purchases.
Western Investor Sentiment:
Western investors have only recently begun reallocating to gold after years of apathy.
GDX open interest down 30% since gold’s 2024 breakout—suggesting no inflow yet from retail.
Valuation Argument:
Gold equities are as cheap now (on many metrics) as they were in 1999 when gold was $250/oz.
Goehring recommends either:
Buying an actively managed gold fund.
Or, for less experienced investors, just owning GDX.
James Seyffart – ETF Analyst, Bloomberg
Bitcoin ETF Landscape:
11 active U.S. Bitcoin ETFs with ~$9B in inflows over the past 7 weeks.
ETF flows are significant but follow broader macro and spot price trends.
Institutional share growing: Advisors overtook hedge funds as the top ETF holders in Q1 2025.
Investor Profile Breakdown:
Only ~23% of ETF holders are 13F filers; the rest (~77%) are retail or non-disclosing entities.
Advisors are expected to become dominant as more wirehouses approve solicited buying.
Fee Wars and Differentiation:
Lowest-cost ETFs like BTC (Grayscale) and HODL (VanEck) gaining traction.
BlackRock and Fidelity playing to scale and trust; crypto-native players offer specialization.
Profitability remains high due to asset appreciation; even smaller ETFs are breaking even.
Regulatory Update:
Post-Trump SEC has made a "180-degree" shift; more engagement and openness to altcoin ETFs (e.g., Solana staking).
Expectation: Crypto index and multi-asset digital products launching by summer 2025.
Bob Elliott – CEO & CIO, Unlimited Funds
U.S. growth is rolling over: real disposable income is now ‑0.7 % YoY, the household savings rate is < 3 %, and temp‑staff payrolls are down 9 % from the 2023 peak.
Elliott argues the Fed will have to pivot away from its inflation crusade and prioritize employment & financial‑system stability, forcing three to four cuts beginning Q4‑2025.
With the Treasury’s net financing need running > 9 % of GDP, he expects some variant of financial repression: policy rates capped below inflation, targeted yield‑curve control on the 10‑yr, and a stealth re‑expansion of the Fed balance sheet.
Stagflation Playbook – What Works / What Doesn’t
Works: scarce, supply‑constrained real assets (gold, broad commodities, energy equities); quality cash‑flow stocks with pricing power; systematic macro strategies that harvest carry & trend.
Doesn’t: long‑duration growth stocks whose cash flows live in the distant future; levered private credit if nominal growth slips; fixed‑coupon bonds without embedded optionality.
Real‑Time Hedge‑Fund Heat‑Map (Unlimited scrapes > 50 marquee macro funds each day)
+65 % net long duration via CME TY & US contracts – a massive pivot from ‑15 % net short in February.
Precious metals bid: gold length sits in the 90th percentile of its 5‑yr range; silver longs just hit a 2‑yr high.
Short‑dollar basket: biggest FX exposure – long EUR, AUD, CAD & JPY versus USD; long MXN carry is the lone dollar‑positive leg.
Equities faded: gross beta reduced to 0.35 with ‑28 % net short unprofitable tech and modest longs in mega‑cap AI “cash‑flow kings.”
Tail‑risk hedges: top‑10 positions now include long VIX futures, 20‑delta S&P put spreads, and upside EUR/CHF calls (a play on euro‑area fragmentation).
Elliott’s Take vs. the Crowd
Agrees with consensus on long gold & short USD, but thinks the bond long is “getting late.” Prefers 5‑yr sector longs plus 2s/10s steepeners instead of outright 10‑yr duration.
Sees commodities structurally under‑owned relative to the likely scale of a global cap‑ex boom; flags oil and uranium as the next rotations.
Warns that crowding in single‑name AI equities could set up a 2021‑style unwind: “Everyone owns the same five stocks and thinks it’s a hedge.”
Unlimited Funds Product Suite & Pipeline
HFND ETF – flagship “S&P 500 of hedge funds.” YTD +11.2 % with just 0.22 equity beta.
UMAC ETF – 2×‑vol global‑macro clone (launched Apr 2025; +7.5 % since inception).
EQ‑Alpha (filed) – machine‑learning long/short equity overlay that neutralizes factor drift monthly.
Portfolio Construction Guide (Elliott’s “Retail Resilience Mix”)
40 % global quality equities.
20 % HFND‑style multi‑asset alpha (HFND/UMAC blend).
20 % liquid real assets (gold, broad commodity ETF, diversified energy producers).
15 % laddered T‑bills & short‑duration IG credit – dry powder for re‑balancing.
5 % optionality sleeve split between Bitcoin and cheap volatility carries.
Takeaway: Hedge funds are positioning for a policy‑induced slowdown rather than full‑blown stagflation—max long duration, structurally long hard money, tactically short the dollar, underweight risky equities, and re‑installing volatility hedges.
Taj Singh – CEO & Director, First Nordic Metals
Aida Target (Paubäcken Project – Sweden)
Follow-up drilling to a 2021 discovery hole of 22.5 m @ 2.4 g/t Au including 11.4 m @ 4.3 g/t.
2025 program: 10,000 meters of diamond drilling across multiple step-outs and parallel structures.
Singh noted that Aida is part of a larger 12 km mineralized corridor with multiple untested geophysical anomalies. Geologic similarities to Agnico Eagle’s Kittilä Mine were flagged.
Nippas Target (Storjuktan Project – Sweden)
Singh highlighted a 5-km structural zone with consistent gold-in-till and boulder anomalies.
Phase 1 (2025): 5,000 meters of first-pass diamond drilling focused on interpreted shear-hosted gold zones.
He called Nippas a "textbook orogenic system" with analogues to Kirkland Lake and Lapland Greenstone Belt-style gold systems.
Harpsund & Brokojan (Finland)
Awaiting early 2025 base-of-till (BoT) results before launching follow-up core drilling.
Singh emphasized the efficiency of BoT in de-risking target prioritization in glaciated terrains.
Land Package & New Discoveries
First Nordic controls >60,000 hectares across its four main project clusters.
Singh confirmed that five new geochemical anomalies identified in Q2 2025 will be advanced to drill readiness by early 2026.
Company maintains aggressive low-cost exploration strategy with a lean ~C$10M annual burn rate.
Capital Markets & Partnerships
Singh stressed their goal of maintaining tight share structure while maximizing meters per dollar.
Discussions are underway with senior producers and regional players about farm-ins and JV opportunities—"We want to remain an operator, but with smart capital partners."
Next Catalysts
Initial assay results from Aida and Nippas expected by Q3 2025.
Potential maiden resource modeling at Aida by year-end 2025, contingent on drill success.
Broader strategic review expected in early 2026 to evaluate monetization or JV paths for non-core assets.
Alex Black – Chairman, Rio2
Project Snapshot – Fenix, Atacama Region, Chile:
Run‑of‑mine (ROM) oxide heap‑leach processing; very few peers globally of comparable scale.
Starter Phase: 20 kt/d ore, targeting first gold pour in January 2026; strip ratio only 0.85 : 1 in the initial pit – dramatically lower than Nevada analogues Marigold (3.6 : 1) and Bald Mountain (2.5 : 1)
Expansion Case: PFS work under way to lift throughput ~4× within 3‑5 years; projected strip ratio ~1.2 : 1 and all‑in sustaining cost (AISC) trending toward US$1,000/oz
Cost & Economics:
Current starter‑phase AISC US$1,250/oz; project generates robust margins even at US$1,500/oz gold, so today’s >US$3,300/oz spot price is pure torque
ROM leach metallurgical recovery modelled at ~75 %.
Permitting & Financing:
Environmental Impact Assessment approved in late 2023 after an 18‑month review under Chile’s new government
October 2024 financing package closed: senior debt plus streaming deal with Wheaton Precious Metals fully funds capex to first pour
Next Catalysts (H2‑2025): detailed expansion PFS, water‑supply optimization, and first leach‑pad construction photos.
Jeroen Blokland – Founder, Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund
Fund Philosophy:
Rejects traditional 60/40 model; bonds offer no real return post-2005.
Core holdings: 60% quality stocks, 25% physical gold, 15% Bitcoin.
Only invests in "scarce assets"—those that cannot be printed or artificially created.
Europe’s Macro Challenges:
Overregulation and aging demographics are stifling growth.
EU underperforms in tech due to bureaucratic barriers.
Military spending now mandatory (~3% of GDP), creating structural deficits.
Digital Gold Thesis:
Gold remains the base layer of monetary trust.
Bitcoin offers superior transmittability and digital-native appeal.
Advocates owning both for diversification.
Jim Hesketh – CEO, Viva Gold
Resource Quality & Update: Tonopah sits at ~600 koz Au today, with ≈90 % already in the measured + indicated categories. A combined PEA + updated resource will be released "before very long" to capture new drilling
Strategy – Build, Don’t Drill Out the Cycle:
Hesketh’s priority is to ride the current gold super‑cycle, pushing rapidly to feasibility and permits rather than spending years growing ounces in the ground.
U.S. permitting window is highly favorable; federal agencies now offer accelerated EIS timelines. Viva has already finished most baseline studies over the past three years and expects to file its full EIS package in 2026 after completing a FS in early 2026.
Economic Sensitivity:
Planning case must use the 3‑year trailing average (~US$2,200/oz); spot price near US$3,300 implies a US$1,100/oz delta, worth ≈US$550 M in incremental pre‑tax cash flow on a 0.5 Moz recovered profile
Capital Discipline: Goal is to self‑fund future district consolidation “with cash flow, not dilution.”
Ross McElroy – CEO, Apollo Silver
Flagship Projects:
McElroy emphasized the importance of Apollo’s Waterloo and Langtry silver projects in California, which collectively hold one of the largest undeveloped silver resources in the western U.S.
Combined resource sits at approximately 166 million ounces of silver equivalent.
Permitting Advantage:
Both projects are on private land and have completed baseline environmental studies, giving Apollo a major head start in permitting compared to peers.
California’s regulatory hurdles are often overstated, said McElroy—proactive community engagement and early environmental stewardship have helped Apollo avoid common pitfalls.
Silver Market Dynamics:
McElroy echoed Tracy Shuchart’s remarks on structural deficits, citing a long-term imbalance between supply and industrial demand.
He noted silver’s critical role in electronics, solar, and EV manufacturing, and sees continued price strength supporting mine development.
Development Plans:
Apollo is advancing toward a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) by late 2025.
The company is also testing processing technologies aimed at improving silver recoveries from oxide and transition zones.
Strategic Positioning:
With rising silver prices, high inflation, and a constrained permitting environment, McElroy positioned Apollo as one of the few silver juniors with near-term development capability in a stable U.S. jurisdiction.
Steve Beresford – Director, Power Metallic
Deposit Model: Beresford explained why zoned polymetallic nickel‑sulphide systems (copper‑rich tops grading into nickel bottoms) are economically superior; only ~20 such camps exist globally and the last major discovery was 18 years ago
Lion & NISK Targets (Québec):
Lion hole sections show massive copper‑PGM mineralisation with virtually no nickel – textbook copper cap that should transition to nickel at depth, mirroring world‑class Norilsk and Sakatti systems
Original NISK discovery hosts the nickel end‑member; drilling is tracking structural thickening/thinning characteristic of remobilised sulphides; recent holes returned thicker intervals and rising nickel tenor
2025 Work Program:
Company is well‑funded to execute 20–30 km of drilling, down‑plunge at Lion and below NISK, plus geophysics over newly staked ground.
Land package just expanded to secure the entire camp scale after recognising tight clustering of systems within tens of kilometres
Economic Upshot: High‑grade copper‑PGM caps provide quick payback and lower cap‑intensity before bulk‑tonnage nickel mining later in the mine life, a “periodic‑table deposit” style opportunity.
Will Robinson – VP of Exploration, West Red Lake Gold
Key Themes: Madsen Restart, High‑Grade Definition Drilling, Near‑Mine Expansion
Operational Ramp‑Up: Mill currently running 600‑650 t/d; targeting 800 t/d by year‑end 2025 as underground development catches up
Definition Drilling Success:
2025 underground drilling delivered standout intercepts such as 114 g/t Au over 10 m, 61 g/t over 12 m, and 52 g/t over 4.5 m within the South Austin zone, de‑risking early stopes
Near‑Mine Growth Pipeline:
Fork Zone: Re‑interpretation reveals a shallow high‑grade ore shoot only 250 m from existing workings; ~3 km of short holes (~3 km) planned to fast‑track resource upgrade
North Shore Trend: 12 km of 2024‑drilling outlined >100 m wide alteration halo with Madsen geochemical signature, 1 km north of current reserve shell – potential for a second deposit
Exploration Budget: ~12 km drilled regionally in 2024; similar budget earmarked for 2025 focused on Fork, North Shore and deep extensions of 8‑Zone.
Market Sentiment: Robinson notes rising investor interest as gold hits repeated all‑time highs, bringing fresh capital back to developers and explorers