Grizzle Hard Money 2026: Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Conference
The recent Grizzle Hard Money Conference brought together a stellar lineup of portfolio managers, producers, and explorers to dissect the current state of the precious metals industry. If there was one takeaway that cut through the noise, it is the sheer cash-generative power of the sector right now. From our keynote with Kinross to the deep-dive conversations with mid-tier producers and junior explorers, the message was clear: when you have assets capable of expanding their resource base through the drill bit, the fluctuations in the spot gold and silver prices become secondary to the fundamental value being unlocked in the ground.
We also took a deep dive into the macro backdrop with Jeroen Blokland, whose work on The Great Rebalancing defines the current macro struggle: in aging economies, policymakers resort to debt-fueled growth, creating a cycle of fiscal dominance that guarantees the long-term destruction of fiat purchasing power. While gold has seen some expected volatility after its recent highs, the structural thesis remains incredibly robust. Whether it is China’s ongoing accumulation or the way gold historically thrives during inflationary spikes and periods of extreme debt, these are long-term dynamics that aren’t going anywhere.
Insights from the conference extended beyond hard money assets. Our conversation with Leigh Goehring provided a critical “other side of the coin” regarding oil and the broader commodities complex.
We also navigated the tension between the current market focus on AI and the search for value across asset classes; we believe the current entry points for hard money assets offer a compelling combination of value and growth.
Finally, we tackled the Bitcoin piece of the puzzle, acknowledging the ongoing volatility that continues to shape the digital asset narrative. Between the shifting macro winds and the tactical opportunities in mining and energy, this conference was held at an opportune juncture. We look forward to sharing these session notes with you, as the themes we unpacked over the last few days are going to be critical for navigating the markets in the months ahead.
Speakers:
David Shaver, Executive Vice-President - Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC)
Derek Macpherson, CEO - West Point Gold (TSXV:WPG)
Rob McLeod, CEO - Cambria Gold Mines (TSXV: CAMB)
Andrew Clark, CEO - Summit Royalties (TSXV:SUM)
Mark Brennan, CEO - Cerrado Gold (TSXV:CERT)
Jeroen Blokland, Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund
Steve Cope, CEO - Silver Viper Minerals (TSXV:VIPR)
Luke Alexander, CEO, Newcore Gold (TSXV:NCAU)
Stephen Soock, VP Investor Relations, Heliostar Metals
Leigh Goehring, Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates
David Shaver, Executive Vice-President - Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC): Firing on All Cylinders with a 10% Free Cash Flow Yield
A Shift in Industry Discipline: David Shaver reflects on the evolution of the gold mining industry, noting a shift away from the “growth at all costs” mentality of past cycles. Previously, companies heavily leveraged their balance sheets for M&A and production growth, which did not translate to outsized shareholder returns. Today, the industry—and Kinross specifically—is intensely focused on capital discipline, prioritizing return on invested capital (ROIC), internal rates of return (IRR), and shareholder-friendly initiatives like dividends and buybacks.
Conservative Planning in a $5,000 Gold Environment: While spot gold is flirting with $5,000, Kinross is not operating its business as if those prices are permanent. The company uses conservative baseline metrics—calculating reserves at $2,000 and resources at $2,500—to ensure profitability across all market cycles. However, for short-term guidance and 2026 planning, they are running numbers closer to the $4,500 spot price, which is generating exceptional margins.
The 10% Free Cash Flow Juggernaut: This capital discipline and higher spot price environment have resulted in record free cash flow for the company. Kinross currently boasts an impressive ~10% free cash flow yield, a metric that is actively attracting generalist investors, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds who historically may have avoided the sector.
A De-Risked, Americas-Focused Portfolio: Kinross has strategically shifted its operational footprint to become more heavily biased toward lower-risk jurisdictions in the Americas, successfully exiting Russia and Ghana. This pivot is anchored by massive, high-margin assets like Paracatu in Brazil and upcoming tier-one projects like Great Bear in Ontario, Canada.
Aggressive Shareholder Returns: The company has a clear, three-pillar capital allocation strategy: reinvesting in the business, maintaining a strong balance sheet, and returning capital to shareholders. Having successfully deleveraged to a net cash position of $1.4 billion, Kinross is now targeting a return of 40% of its free cash flow to shareholders. While they recently raised their base dividend by 30%, management is currently biased toward aggressive share buybacks—having repurchased roughly $900 million in stock since Q1 2025—to directly improve per-share metrics.
Derek Macpherson, CEO - West Point Gold (TSXV:WPG): De-risking with a Maiden Resource and aggressive exploration in the Walker Lane Gold Trend
Focusing on the Gold Chain Project: West Point Gold is an exploration-stage company operating in the southwestern US, specifically within the Walker Lane Trend across Arizona and Nevada. Their flagship asset is the Gold Chain project, located just across the Arizona-Nevada border. The company’s immediate goal is to steadily de-risk this asset, advancing the project to the point where larger players see its acquisition value.
The Imminent Maiden Resource: The primary objective of their recently wrapped 20,000-meter drill program is to deliver a maiden resource at the Tyro Main Zone by late Q3 or early Q4 of 2026. This zone features a one-kilometer-long outcrop with historical mining activity. Recent drilling has been highly encouraging, with holes intercepting 30 meters at 9 grams per ton, establishing a 20-to-30-meter-wide zone of high-grade material extending down to 300 meters. The company believes that simply defining this resource—which targets 1 to 3 million ounces at 2 to 3 grams per ton at surface—will significantly de-risk the company and highlight its undervaluation.
A Pipeline of Regional Discoveries: While the Tyro Main Zone is the immediate focus, Gold Chain spans over 10,000 acres and holds a half-dozen high-quality step-out targets. The company has already announced discoveries at Black Dyke and Sheep Trail, which have the potential to become small resources themselves. They are also awaiting assays on Bull 8, a target situated on the intersection of two major structures (the Frisco Mine fault and Union Pass fault).
The “Big Prize” Frisco Graben Target: Beyond the current drill zones lies the Frisco Graben, a massive, blind target measuring 4 kilometers long by 750 meters wide. Because there is no gold at surface, it is a high-risk, high-reward target. The company plans to systematically de-risk the area by drilling around it—including at Tyro and Bull 8—before likely taking a direct shot at the Frisco Graben in 2027.
The Kinross “Jefferson Canyon” Option: In 2022, West Point struck a highly favorable option agreement with Kinross regarding the Jefferson Canyon project, which sits just seven kilometers from Kinross’s depleting Round Mountain mine. Kinross is handling the complex US Forest Service permitting process and will conduct exploratory drilling. Crucially, if Kinross wants to acquire an interest in the project, they must write direct checks to West Point—$5 million US for a 70% stake, and another $5 million US for an additional 10%—rather than just sinking money into project expenditures. This provides West Point with potential non-dilutive capital to reinvest in its flagship Gold Chain asset.
Rob McLeod, CEO - Cambria Gold Mines (TSXV: CAMB): A Clear Path to Restarting the Premier Mill
The Red Mountain Solution: CEO Rob McLeod outlines the fundamental challenge that caused the Premier mine to fail under previous management in 2024: an inability to locate enough accessible ore to consistently feed its 2,500-ton-per-day mill. Cambria’s solution is the Red Mountain deposit, which McLeod describes as the best undeveloped underground gold deposit in Canada. Located 50 kilometers away, it boasts an incredibly wide, high-grade ore body with nearly 800,000 ounces in the measured and indicated categories (including 544,000 measured ounces at 8.8 grams per ton). The plan is to truck this ore to the Premier mill, creating a combined operation targeting roughly 150,000 ounces of annual production.
The “Unicorn” Copper Spin-Out: In a massive value-unlock for shareholders, Cambria is spinning out its legacy Mount Margaret copper asset located in Washington State. Discovered in the 1970s but halted by the eruption of Mount St. Helens, the deposit features a historic resource of 577 million tons at 0.72% copper equivalent outcropping right at surface. As McLeod notes, a copper mine of this scale hasn’t been built in the US in 50 years. The new U.S.-domiciled company will target a listing on an American exchange, with Cambria shareholders expected to retain a 49.9% stake.
Warrants as a Financing Mechanism: In a refreshing approach to capital management, McLeod shared advice received from Franklin Templeton: warrants should not be viewed merely as “sweeteners” but as a primary financing mechanism. If the half-warrants attached to their January 2026 private placement are fully exercised by their expiration in early 2027, they will bring in an additional $125 million CAD. This non-dilutive capital is earmarked to fund the operation to production, potentially including a $30 million aerial tram line to mitigate extreme winter snowfall at Red Mountain.
No Need for Definition Drilling at Red Mountain: While exploration is always a consideration, it is not the current focus. McLeod emphasizes that Red Mountain is so well-defined—having been scissor-drilled, bulk-sampled, and heavily endowed with measured resources—that it likely won’t need any additional drilling for five years. The immediate focus is solely on executing the restart plan and putting the mill into production.
A Potential Fast-Tracked Restart: Construction on the critical Red Mountain access road is beginning imminently, with the goal of starting underground development and ore trucking in 2027. However, management is actively evaluating an early restart scenario as soon as mid-2027. By utilizing a bulk mining approach at the nearby Big Missouri and Silvercoin deposits—blending those tons with high-grade ore from the Premier mine—Cambria could generate early cash flow and eliminate costly care-and-maintenance expenses while the final infrastructure for Red Mountain is completed.
Andrew Clark, CEO - Summit Royalties (TSXV:SUM): A High-Growth, Aggressive Market Entry
The Star Royalties Acquisition: CEO Drew Clarke provides context on their recent acquisition of Star Royalties. The transaction is highly accretive on a Net Asset Value (NAV) per-share basis and dramatically increases Summit’s cash flow per share by an estimated 28% to 30%. A crucial component of this deal is Star’s Copperstone asset in the US, which recently entered construction. It features a new Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS) indicating an IRR of over 100% and a resource base that has doubled, setting it up for production next year. Summit aims to close this acquisition by late June or Q3.
Aggressive Revenue Targets: Summit came to market with an initial target of $10 million in revenue. With the Star acquisition propelling them past that milestone, management has immediately set their sights on $20 million, which they expect the current portfolio to generate by the end of 2028. At 15 times revenue—which is a discount to peer multiples—a $20 million revenue line implies a $300 million business, suggesting a potential share price of $3.00 US ($4.00 CAD), compared to their current trading level of $1.50. Once they hit $20 million, the target moves to $30 million, underscoring a relentless focus on scaling the business.
A Non-Dilutive Debt Strategy: Uniquely, Summit has raised significant capital thus far without issuing warrants. As they move forward, debt is firmly in the toolkit. With the portfolio shifting from four producing assets to six next year, the business becomes highly bankable. Management is actively in discussions with banks—some of which have been inbound inquiries—to secure debt that will allow them to acquire future royalties on a non-dilutive basis, enabling them to make accretive deals even if they pay slightly above NAV.
Closing the Valuation Gap: Despite the stock rising 66% since its November listing, Summit continues to trade at a significant discount to its peers, hovering between 0.75x and 0.8x NAV. Clarke argues that because almost all of Summit’s growth comes from assets that are either already producing or in active construction—managed by well-capitalized, $800M+ operators—the portfolio deserves to trade at or above 1x NAV. The company is actively pursuing aggressive marketing and expanded research coverage to bridge this gap.
Major Upcoming Catalysts: Investors can expect a steady stream of updates across the portfolio. Highlights include the ongoing commissioning of West Red Lake’s Madsen mine, which is expected to have a strong second half. Additionally, a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) is due for the Banyan project, targeting over 300,000 ounces a year, where Summit holds 1% and 2% royalties on key deposits. Finally, the Zancudo project in Colombia is installing a 1,000-ton-per-day mill later this year, expected to ramp up to 45,000–50,000 ounces annually, potentially adding another $1 million to $1.5 million to Summit’s revenue line.
Mark Brennan, CEO - Cerrado Gold (TSXV:CERT): Extending Mine Life and Advancing a Multi-Asset Portfolio
MDN Mine Life Extension and Consolidation: Mark Brennan emphasizes that the Minera Don Nicolás (MDN) project in Argentina is currently the company’s most critical asset, as it generates 100% of their near-term cash flow. Historically challenged by a short, two-to-three-year mine life, management is now highly confident they can extend this to five to six years. This optimism is driven by their recent acquisition of the Falcon project from Pan American Silver, which fits into a regional consolidation strategy focused on processing lower-grade material at the Calandrias heap leach operation.
Three Pillars for Production Growth: Beyond simply extending the mine life, Cerrado is actively working to push MDN’s production guidance from the current 50,000–60,000 ounces per year to higher levels. This growth will be driven by three key initiatives: optimizing current underground operations, expanding and upgrading material for the heap leach, and executing an aggressive 50,000-meter drill program designed to drive higher-grade material through the plant.
The Portugal Turnaround: The company has faced regulatory hurdles with its Portuguese asset, specifically an unexpected environmental rejection despite addressing requested adjustments (such as eliminating cyanide use). In response, Cerrado has filed an injunction and a lawsuit to protect its interests. Management plans to resubmit a revised Environmental Impact Assessment by December 1st, 2026, alongside detailed engineering. They anticipate approval within 150 days, which would position the project to begin construction by the summer of 2027.
The Quebec Iron Ore Upside: While further out on the development timeline, the Mont Sorcier iron ore project in Quebec represents massive potential scale. The deposit holds 1.1 billion tons of high-grade, high-purity iron ore, with 550 million tons in the measured, indicated, and proven/probable categories. A feasibility study is expected by the end of June 2026. Following this, the company plans to submit its environmental assessment in early 2027, targeting construction in early 2029 and first production by 2031.
Clear Valuation Catalysts: Brennan lays out a compelling case for a significant market re-rating. Delivering the Quebec feasibility study could unlock $100M–$200M in value (assuming a 0.1x to 0.2x multiple on a potential $1B NPV). In Portugal, simply recovering credit for the historical $150M NPV of the project adds immediate upside. Finally, proving the five-to-six-year mine life at MDN could add another $100M–$200M to the market cap. Combined, management believes these three catalysts have the potential to add $300M to $500M to the company’s valuation in the near term.
Jeroen Blokland, Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund - The Great Rebalancing and the Shift to Scarce Assets
Link to Jeroen Blokland's New Book "The Great Rebalancing": https://shorturl.at/1uQad
The Evolution of Bitcoin and Collateralization: Blokland maintains his bullish stance on Bitcoin despite recent underperformance, noting that it has simply lacked a specific recent catalyst compared to overwhelming market narratives like AI or gold. He is not concerned about the threat of quantum computing, arguing that the Bitcoin community is ahead of the curve and can implement a software update to address what will ultimately be a society-wide data privacy issue. More importantly, he highlights the rapid growth of Bitcoin-backed lending, where investors can now secure 30% to 50% loans against their Bitcoin collateral. This completely refutes the outdated argument that Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value or cash flow, as investors can now post it as collateral for US dollars to earn yield in a money market fund.
Gold’s Historical Reaction to Inflation: While gold has recently pulled back 20% from its highs amid the Iran conflict and fears of higher interest rates, Blokland believes the long-term thesis is stronger than ever. He notes that China must accumulate true gold to build trust if it wants to successfully move away from the US dollar. Looking back at the two major inflationary spikes of the 1970s, gold surged 283% and 285% in real terms. During those same periods, bonds—often viewed as a safe asset—lost 11% and 17% in real terms, while equities also suffered massive drawdowns.
The Problem: Debt-Driven Economies and Fiscal Dominance: In his newly published book, The Great Rebalancing, Blokland outlines the core problem facing global markets: aging societies naturally produce lower GDP growth. To artificially prop up growth and avoid shrinking, politicians rely heavily on debt. This creates a system where debt sustainability becomes the ultimate goal for policymakers and central banks, leading to higher taxes, forced lower interest rates, and higher inflation. Ultimately, this dynamic guarantees the ongoing destruction of purchasing power.
The Solution: A New Portfolio of Scarce Assets: To combat abundant fiat money and inflation, Blokland argues investors must store their wealth in scarce assets. The Blokland Fund implements this philosophy by resembling a traditional 60/40 portfolio, but completely eliminating traditional cash and bonds. Instead, the fund maintains a 25% strategic weight in physical gold, a 10% weight in Bitcoin, and allocates just over half the portfolio to special, high-quality scarce equities.
The “Emergency Brake” Mechanism: The fund utilizes a sentiment-driven “emergency brake” designed to neutralize equity exposure during severe market crashes, such as the dot-com bust or the Great Financial Crisis. The primary goal is to protect investors from 30% to 60% drawdowns that cause emotional, irrational selling. While the brake was triggered in April during the Iran conflict, the market’s rapid V-shaped recovery meant the fund re-entered at a slightly higher level; however, Blokland emphasizes the mechanism is built to protect against deep, structural bubbles popping rather than shallow, short-term volatility.
Steve Cope, CEO - Silver Viper Minerals (TSXV:VIPR): Aggressive Exploration and Strategic Growth in Mexico
The M&A Strategy and Target Thresholds: CEO Steve Cope outlines the company’s clear strategy: aggressively building resource packages that attract mid-tier and major miners. For major miners (like Fresnillo), the target threshold is typically 2 million ounces of gold or 200 million ounces of silver equivalent. Mid-tier miners may engage at lower levels, roughly 500,000 ounces of gold or 50 million ounces of silver equivalent. Silver Viper’s exploration programs are laser-focused on advancing assets that have the scale potential to hit those “big boy” thresholds.
Aggressive Drilling at La Virginia: Silver Viper has positioned itself as one of the most aggressive explorers in Mexico. They are currently executing a 30,000-meter drill program at La Virginia, having completed roughly 10,000 meters so far. The program is moving quickly, and management believes that if they add a second rig, they can comfortably complete the entire program this year, paving the way for a highly anticipated resource update in Q3.
The “Deep Target” Below El Rubi: One of the most significant near-term catalysts is the upcoming drill test of a deep target below the El Rubi area at La Virginia. Geophysical testing (magnetotellurics) championed by Quinton Hennigh of Crescat Capital has revealed a large target at the contact point where the upper, brittle andesite rock meets the denser, tighter rhyolite package below. Geological theory—supported by occasional high-grade, base-metal-rich sulfide fragments blasted to the surface—suggests a massive blowout of mineralization occurred at this contact. Drilling this target could potentially reveal a multi-million-ounce, polymetallic deposit at depth. That is management’s hope.
Leveraging the Fresnillo Partnership: Major miner Fresnillo is currently Silver Viper’s largest shareholder. Having successfully closed the Caneto acquisition, Fresnillo is now looking to open up its portfolio of 15 to 16 other Mexican assets that currently sit below their 200-million-ounce silver equivalent threshold. Silver Viper’s geology team is actively evaluating this portfolio to identify projects where they can acquire cheap ounces, create synergies, and rapidly advance the assets, focusing specifically on their preferred jurisdictions of Sonora and Durango.
The Caneto Opportunity: The Caneto project currently holds a resource of roughly 50 million silver equivalent ounces, derived from just 6 of the 40 known veins on the property. Crucially, the old workings on these un-drilled veins only scratched the surface (20 to 50 meters down) because historical miners could not process below the water table. Because typical Mexican epithermal veins extend 300 to 600 meters deep, Silver Viper sees massive “easy” discovery potential by simply drilling directly beneath these historic workings. The company is planning a 25,000 to 30,000-meter drill program at Caneto to rapidly build out the resource.
A Re-Rating on Ounces in the Ground: Cope argues that the junior mining sector is poised for a massive macro re-rating. Historically, in a weak market, an ounce of silver in the ground was valued between $0.50 and $2.00. However, in past bull markets, companies were often valued at a “third, a third, a third” rule (a third of the metal price for the asset, a third for costs, and a third for the acquiring company’s upside). Even taking a conservative approach, Cope believes valuations of $5 to $10 per silver ounce in the ground should become the new standard as majors increasingly pay premiums for quality assets, presenting a massive arbitrage opportunity for investors today.
Luke Alexander, CEO, Newcore Gold (TSXV:NCAU): Advancing the District-Scale Enchi Gold Project in Ghana
Ghana as a Tier-One Mining Jurisdiction: CEO Luke Alexander highlights that despite common perceptions of emerging markets, Ghana is a premier, tier-one mining jurisdiction. The country has a thousand-year history of gold production, a well-established mining code, and a strong regulatory environment supported by the Minerals Commission and a robust Chamber of Mines. The country’s tier-one status is underscored by the presence of major global producers, including Newmont—which operates its second-largest global gold producing asset in Ghana—Gold Fields, and AngloGold Ashanti.
The Enchi Gold Project: Newcore’s flagship Enchi project is located on the Sefwi-Bibiani belt, a prolific trend that hosts several major mines, including Chirano (5.5M oz) and Bibiani (6.5M oz), and runs along strike from Newmont’s 20M+ ounce Ahafo complex. The project currently hosts a global resource of 2.1 million ounces (1.5M oz indicated and 0.6M oz inferred). Crucially, the resource remains shallow, with current pit constraints only reaching 85 meters in depth, leaving massive potential for growth both along strike and at depth.
De-Risking Catalysts: Newcore is currently moving from a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) to a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS), which is targeted for release in June 2026. This study marks a major de-risking phase for the project. While the current 60,000-meter drill program has been ongoing, Newcore has already cut off data for the upcoming PFS to focus on current resource certainty; therefore, the remaining 21,000 meters of planned drilling will be reserved to strengthen future feasibility studies and resource updates.
Aggressive Exploration Strategy: Newcore is utilizing a sophisticated, result-based exploration strategy. With four drill rigs (three diamond, one RC) currently turning, the team is aggressively chasing high-grade feeder zones at depth, which have yielded some of the highest-grade intercepts in the project’s history during 2026. Beyond the main resource, the company has identified roughly 25 additional targets across its 100 kilometers of shear zone, utilizing soil sampling and trenching to prioritize which greenfield targets warrant initial drill testing.
Strong Institutional Backing: Newcore recently closed a $15.15 million financing led by long-term, deep-pocketed institutional investors, pushing their institutional ownership above 55%. This capital ensures the company is well-funded not only to complete its 60,000-meter program but to expand it significantly. These funds will also begin the necessary technical work for a full feasibility study, including metallurgical, geotechnical, and hydrological assessments.
Stephen Soock, VP Investor Relations, Heliostar Metals (TSXV:HSTR): A Value Added Bootstrapping Approach to Building a Mid-Tier Gold Producer
The “Bootstrap” Growth Methodology: Heliostar Metals is executing a unique strategy to reach its goal of becoming a 300,000-ounce-per-year producer. Instead of relying on heavy equity dilution to fund major development projects, the company uses its two cash-flowing mines to act as an internal “cash engine”. This allows the company to fund development activities and infrastructure growth through operational cash flow, a methodology management describes as a “bootstrapping” approach to building a producer.
Flagship Asset: Ana Paula: The company’s flagship development project, Ana Paula, is described by management as a “unicorn” in the industry due to its rare combination of high-grade mineralization over wide widths, allowing for bulk-tonnage mining with high margins. A recent Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) outlines a 100,000-ounce-per-year production profile with an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,000 per ounce over a nine-year mine life. The company plans to reach a construction decision by late Q2 2027 and estimates the asset will generate roughly $200 million in annual after-tax free cash flow.
Operational Cash-Flow ATMs: Heliostar currently operates two mines in Mexico. San Augustine serves as a short-term “cash flow ATM,” with 14 months of mine life on the books projected to generate $60 million in net free cash flow. Drilling has already suggested an additional 9 to 12 months of mine life, potentially adding another $50 million to that cash flow profile. Simultaneously, their La Colorada mine is currently mining a six-year reserve, but management believes that through expansion pits (like Veta Madre Plus) and high-grade underground potential, they will comfortably extend production at the site well past a decade.
Geographic Diversification into Utah: Reflecting its growth, Heliostar recently acquired the Gold Strike project in Utah for $75 per ounce—a move management describes as “hiding in plain sight” under previous ownership. The asset holds a million-ounce resource and serves as a key step in geographically diversifying the company’s portfolio beyond Mexico while remaining in a premier mining jurisdiction (the Great Basin).
Path to 300,000 Ounces: The company’s long-term production roadmap is clear: it is scaling from the current 50,000+ ounce annual run rate toward a 300,000-ounce target by the end of 2030. This is achieved in stages: first, by optimizing existing cash flows, then bringing AnaPaula online by 2028, and finally, integrating the Cerro del Gallo project.
Upcoming Catalysts: Management highlighted a busy news flow over the next 12–18 months, focusing on:
Drill Results: Ongoing mine-life extension drilling at San Augustine and deep-tier drilling at AnaPaula to test the potential for a multi-million-ounce system at depth.
Permitting & Financing: Submission of the permit modification for AnaPaula in August 2026, and ongoing financing discussions exploring a blend of bank debt, Nordic bonds, and private equity.
Feasibility Milestones: Completion of the full feasibility study for AnaPaula, slated for late Q2 2027.
Leigh Goehring, Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates: The Coming Energy Crisis and the “Reverse April 2020” Setup
Oil’s Unbelievable “First Leg”: Goehring argues that we are currently in the first leg of a massive oil bull market that remains largely unrecognized by the broader market. Despite a ~60% gain since mid-December, investor sentiment remains skeptical, with many dismissing the move as a temporary reaction to geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Goehring draws a direct parallel to the gold bull market of 1999–2001, where a radically undervalued asset class was ignored by the majority of the market before embarking on a multi-year secular move.
The “Reverse April 2020” Scenario: Goehring forecasts an “unadulterated crisis” in global oil markets that will mirror the historic crash of April 2020 in reverse. While April 2020 was defined by a glut and fears of overflowing storage (leading to negative prices), the current trajectory is rapidly draining global inventories toward “tank bottoms.” When refiners finally realize supply is unavailable, it will trigger a frantic bidding war among major trading houses, potentially leading to a rapid, violent price spike to $200 per barrel.
Algorithmic Short-Selling as a Funding Mechanism: A significant reason for the muted response in oil prices is the “carry trade” used by hedge funds and algorithmic traders. To fund positions in high-growth, long-duration assets like the “Magnificent Seven” and semiconductor leaders (e.g., Micron), funds have been shorting short-duration assets, specifically oil and oil-related equities. Goehring expects this trade to unwind violently, adding massive buying pressure when the oil price breakout forces these short positions to be covered.
Gold: A Frustrating Period Ahead: Following a massive bull move from 2023 to 2025, Goehring believes the gold market is entering a “frustrating” period. Triggered by a “silver catch-up rally” that signaled the end of the primary gold bull run, history suggests precious metals may face a multi-year period of sideways trading or a significant correction, especially if real interest rates rise. While he recommends retail investors hold their long-term positions, he advises performance-focused investors to reduce exposure for the next couple of years until the next major default-driven leg of the gold bull market begins.
High-Conviction Commodities for 2026:
Coal: Despite being a “four-letter word” in polite society, Goehring highlights an intense resurgence in global coal consumption, driven by Asian nations pivoting back to coal to ensure energy security. With Indonesian exports being curtailed and U.S. domestic consumption growing, this ignored asset class offers significant upside.
U.S. Natural Gas: U.S. natural gas currently trades at an 80% discount to international markets. While Permian supply has remained resilient longer than expected, Goehring remains confident that supply will eventually roll over. He views the current price of ~$3.20/MCF as a generational entry point for a commodity that could eventually converge toward international pricing levels.