Grizzle Commodity 1x1: Outlook 2026
The Playbook for the Supercycle
We recently hosted our annual Commodity 1x1 Outlook Conference, featuring the industry’s sharpest minds and delivering unfiltered insights across the commodity spectrum.
We gathered top-tier portfolio managers, strategists, and CEOs to map out the evolution of the commodity supercycle through 2026 and beyond.
This is critical viewing for both commodity and generalist investors. See below for summary notes on each interview.
Full Conference: X | iTunes | Spotify | YouTube
Warren Pies – Cofounder & Strategist, 3Fourteen Research
2025 Review & 2026 Macro Outlook
2025 Performance: 3Fourteen Research correctly predicted disinflation trends and the lack of a recession in 2025, pushing back against the “higher for longer” consensus
2026 Forecast:
Economic Acceleration: Pies does not see a recession on the horizon; instead, he believes the economy is troughing and will accelerate in the early part of 2026
Bullish on Equities: The firm expects a bullish outcome for stocks with cyclical disinflation continuing through the start of the year
Margins & Multiples: Contrary to the consensus that multiples will contract, Pies forecasts multiple expansion in 2026. He expects margins to expand, driven by a Fed cut, 12% earnings growth, and a less cyclical market
The “Debasement Trade”:
Psychological Shift: Investors are transitioning from a “deflation mindset” (protecting principal) to a “debasement mindset” (protecting purchasing power) due to fiscal stimulus and deficits
Asset Rotation: This environment increases the “right tail” for assets, benefiting stocks, gold, commodities, and crypto in a rotational manner
Commodities & Inflation
Inflation Timeline:
First Half 2026 (Goldilocks): Inflation is not a major concern for early 2026 due to shelter disinflation and a stabilizing labor market
Second Half 2026: Disinflationary tailwinds may abate later in the year, leading to a more commodity-led and demand-driven cycle
Sector Specifics:
Copper & Natural Gas: These commodities are breaking out, driven by the infrastructure and energy needs of data centers and AI buildouts
Oil: Currently lagging due to a supply glut from OPEC returning oil to the market, expects oil to find a bottom in mid-2026
Energy Stocks vs. Commodity: Stocks (e.g., Exxon) are outperforming the underlying commodity because they can look past the short-term supply glut, whereas physical oil markets must digest the current inventory
Bitcoin vs. Gold
Gold Preference: Pies has a bias toward gold and precious metals over Bitcoin because gold currently enjoys a central bank and monetary tailwind that Bitcoin does not yet have
Bitcoin Positioning: While Bitcoin benefits from the debasement trade, Pies believes it pulled a lot of returns forward post-election and is in consolidation. His fund holds a max allocation of ~3% for Bitcoin compared to ~9% for gold
ETF Strategies & Methodology
Real Asset Allocation (RAA) Model:
This model expands beyond the traditional 60/40 split to include 20 different asset classes, including alternatives17.
It utilizes a trend overlay to identify strong trends and a hierarchical risk parity approach to budget risk across asset buckets (equities, fixed income, alternatives)
Quality ETF (FCTE) & The “Boring” AI Trade:
Recent Performance: The quality strategy underperformed in 2025 as quality stocks faced a bear market
Outlook: Pies expects quality to rebound in 2026 as the benefits of AI spending trickle down to efficiency gainers
Adoption Theory: AI adoption will move from large firms downward, benefiting “boring” but efficient operators (e.g., McKesson, Walmart, Costco) who can squeeze better margins out of the technology
Steve Cope - CEO, Silver Viper Minerals (TSXV:VIPR)
Silver Market Dynamics & Outlook
Supply Crunch: Cope notes that above-ground silver supply has dropped significantly, moving from 100+ years of inventory to just 1-2 years
Investment Gap: There has been a lack of capital spent on silver exploration over the last 20 years, as many primary silver deposits were not economic
Industrial Demand: A new structural driver is the “green movement” and AI infrastructure. Silver is the most conductive metal, making it essential for electrification and solar, creating a disconnect from historical demand patterns
Price Catch-Up: While gold has doubled its all-time highs from the last cycle, silver is still lagging its historical high of $50. Cope expects silver to play “catch up” to gold, potentially exceeding historical ratios due to the new industrial component
Rotation of Capital: Cope believes the “poor man’s gold” speculative capital that historically went to silver was diverted to Bitcoin in recent years
Silver Viper Strategy (The “Go Big” Blueprint)
Corporate Goal: The company aims to position itself as the largest explorer in Mexico by mimicking the strategies of successful peers (like Vizsla Silver) who used large scale to command a market premium
Drilling & Expansion:
La Virginia: Adding rigs immediately to focus on resource expansion, testing depth potential, and regional targets
Caneto: Drilling is set to begin in late January/early February with a focus on both resource expansion and new discoveries
Valuation Opportunity: The company is currently trading at market caps similar to when metal prices were much lower, suggesting the market has not yet valued their ounces in the ground at current metal prices
Jurisdiction: Mexico vs. Canada
Cost Advantages: Mexico offers significantly lower mining costs. The state of Sonora is a hub for open-pit heap leach mining, which is the cheapest mining method available
Grade Economics: Due to lower CapEx and infrastructure costs (no need for heating pads, etc.), a Mexican mine can be economic at much lower grades (e.g., 0.5g gold) compared to a project in the Canadian arctic which might need 3-5g gold
Permitting Speed: Cope asserts that Mexico is “back open” for mining, with open-pit permits being granted in roughly one year, compared to potential 3-4 year timelines in Canada
Catalysts & 2026 Outlook
Resource Updates:
La Virginia: Resource update expected at the end of Q2
Caneto: Resource update expected in the second half of the year
PEA Work: The company hopes to begin Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) level work at La Virginia by year-end
M&A Potential: The ultimate strategy is to de-risk the assets to become a takeover target for a major miner (e.g., Fresnillo, Agnico Eagle). Fresnillo is already the largest shareholder
Terry Lynch - CEO Power Metallic (TSXV:PNPN)
Macro Outlook: 2026 & Beyond
Copper: Lynch predicts a strong year for copper, driven by the need to satisfy normal demand plus new AI infrastructure requirements. He believes significantly higher prices are required to incentivize the necessary production
Platinum & Palladium (PGEs): He is very bullish on PGEs, noting they have been undersupplied for years with demand met by inventory drawdown. He suggests prices need to reach $2,000 to justify new mines, which benefits Power Metallic as it is arguably ~40-45% PGE.
Precious Metals:
Silver: Lynch is most bullish on silver, expecting it to “rip the face off” the market.
Gold: He forecasts gold breaking the $5,000 mark next year.
Mining Market Cycle: While 2025 benefited producers and exceptional discoveries, Lynch believes 2026 will see the rally extend down to juniors with valid assets (ounces/pounds in the ground).
The NISC Project (Quebec)
Geological Significance: The project is described as an “orthomagmatic discovery,” a rare deposit type (only ~20 in history) that typically results in major mines. It is compared to Anglo American’s Sakatti deposit in Finland9.
Scale: Analysts currently estimate ~700,000–800,000 tons of contained metal, but Lynch expects it to grow significantly larger.
Drill Program: The company is fully funded for a 100,000-meter drill program.
Lion Zone: Drilling has crossed the fault to “Lion West” and is picking up mineralization again.
Tiger Deep: Located east of Lion, this target is showing “un-mobilized high quality core,” suggesting a source is very close.
Research Hole: A deep 1,000m hole revealed the company’s biggest borehole anomaly ever14. Drilling was paused to secure adjacent land (Hydro lands) but will resume in January.
Polymetallic Nature: The deposit contains multiple “pipes” (like fingers on a hand) rich in copper, nickel, and PGEs. Lynch expects to find significantly more nickel sulfide as they explore further.
Corporate Strategy & Backing
High-Profile Investors: The company has attracted industry legends Robert Friedland, Rob McEwen, and Gina Rinehart, who have participated in multiple private placements.
“Free Agency” Strategy: Lynch has rejected funding offers from majors to preserve the company’s “free agency”. He intends to let the asset grow and hit the open market without restrictions, likely looking toward a transaction in 2026.
Valuation: Lynch estimates the company is trading at 20–30 cents on the dollar relative to peers based on what they have already found.
Upcoming Catalysts (Q1 2026)
January Exploration Update: A detailed podcast update with the geological team is planned for the first week of January.
Assay Results: New exploration results are expected to start flowing by mid-January.
Metallurgical Study: A “Met study” is projected for release by the end of January to de-risk mineral recovery (currently carrying 80% recovery estimates).
NYSE Listing: The company expects to list on the New York Stock Exchange towards the end of January, which Lynch views as a significant catalyst for reaching a better market.
Leigh Goehring, Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates
Macro Outlook: The “Uninvestable” Opportunity
The “First Stage” of the Bull Market: Goehring believes the commodity bull market is only in its first stage—where “no one believes.” He argues investors haven’t missed anything because participation is nonexistent, and recent gains are primarily driven by short covering rather than new capital inflows.
The “Uninvestable” Narrative:
1999 Parallel: Goehring draws a parallel to gold in 1999, which was considered “uninvestable” due to central bank selling, yet became the best-performing asset class for the next 25 years.
Today’s Uninvestable Asset: He identifies oil as today’s “uninvestable” asset class. The prevailing narrative is that EVs will destroy oil demand, making oil stocks (currently only ~2.6% of the S&P 500) remarkably cheap.
Energy & The EV Thesis
EV Skepticism: Goehring aggressively challenges the consensus view on Electric Vehicles (EVs). He predicts that by 2035, there may be “no EVs on the road” because they simply “don’t work” in terms of utility and cost efficiency compared to internal combustion engines.
The Hybrid Future: He believes the future belongs to hybrids, which offer far greater energy efficiency (pushing a car 70 miles per energy unit vs. 25 for an EV) and utility. This outlook makes him extremely bullish on Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), which are essential for hybrid vehicles.
Oil Valuation: In terms of gold, oil is radically undervalued. An ounce of gold currently buys ~73 barrels of oil, whereas historically, it has bought as few as 6–7 barrels.
Precious Metals: Gold & Silver
Silver Catch-Up Framework:
Goehring outlines a recurring historical pattern (seen in 1974, 1980, 2011, and 2020) where silver lags gold for years and then stages a massive “catch-up rally”.
Current Status: A silver catch-up rally is currently underway. If history repeats, silver could overshoot to $75–$80.
The Sell Signal: Historically, once this silver catch-up rally peaks, it triggers a major correction (sell signal) for the entire precious metals complex.
Advice for Investors:
Institutional/Active Traders: If the silver rally plays out as expected, it may be time to “step aside” or take profits in 2026.
Retail Investors: Goehring advises retail investors to hold their positions regardless of the signal. He believes we are facing a monetary regime change and dollar devaluation, making gold the only ultimate safety.
2026 Portfolio Strategy & Top Picks
Recommended Allocation:
Oil & Gas (50%+ Allocation): Goehring recommends a minimum of 50% of the portfolio in oil and North American natural gas stocks. He believes these will take off in 2026 with little initial participation.
Offshore Drilling: He highlights offshore drilling stocks as a key area that will attract huge capital in the next 5-6 years as US shale disappoints.
Contrarian Picks:
Coal: Described as unmentionable in “polite company,” coal equities are a “great contrarian call” and often lead commodity bull markets.
Uranium: He remains bullish and advises keeping positions in the sector.
Corey Dias - CEO, Anfield Energy - Uranium (NASDAQ:AEC | TSXV:AEC)
Uranium Market Outlook
Price Forecast: Dias expects uranium prices to reach triple digits due to a stark supply-demand imbalance
Market Bifurcation & US Premium:
Tariffs and protectionist policies from the US administration could create a bifurcated market where US-produced pounds command a premium over non-US material
The US has the largest installed base of reactors but produces less than 2% of its required uranium, creating a critical need for domestic supply
Tech & AI Demand: The AI boom is bringing new investors and attention to the niche uranium sector. It is also driving demand by preventing the deactivation of nuclear plants and spurring new reactor agreements (e.g., Cameco/Westinghouse)
Anfield Energy Strategy: Hub & Spoke
Asset Overview: Anfield is a purely US-based company with 25 mines across Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona
Shootaring Canyon Mill (The Hub):
This mill is one of only three licensed, permitted, and constructed conventional uranium mills in the US
It will serve as the central processing hub for ore from Anfield’s various mines (the spokes)
Production Timeline:
Goal: Start production through the Velvet-Wood mine by mid-2026 and have the mill ready to accept ore by mid-2027
Long-Term Plan: Create a pipeline of projects ensuring 15–20 years of continuous production by bringing multiple mines (e.g., Slick Rock, West Slope complex) online sequentially
Regulatory & Permitting Environment
Expedited Processes: The regulatory environment under the current administration is favorable. Anfield’s Velvet-Wood mine received an expedited permit in just 11 days (after a year of prior review), setting a precedent for faster approvals
Brownfield Advantage: Anfield focuses on restarting past-producing mines (brownfields) rather than greenfield projects. This minimizes NIMBY (”Not In My Backyard”) risks because the ground is already disturbed, and local communities are historically supportive of mining
Upcoming Catalysts (2026–2027)
Mill Licensing: Anfield expects to receive the radioactive material license amendment to move the mill from standby to operational status by mid-2026
Mill Refurbishment: Once licensed, a ~12-month full refurbishment will begin, targeting completion by mid-2027 Immediate work includes replacing old redwood tanks with steel tanks and updating electrical systems
Mine Construction:
Velvet-Wood: Construction is underway and expected to be complete by mid-2026
JD-8 (West Slope): A plan of operations has been submitted. Restarting these “turnkey” mines is fast and low-cost (~$1M each)
Inventory Build: A 3–6 month inventory build is planned before mill restart. The company already has ~350,000–400,000 pounds of uranium in stockpiled material ready to be processed
Marc Bishop Lafleche - CEO, Ecora Resources - Critical Minerals (TSX:ECOR | LSE:ECOR)
Macro Outlook: Electrification & Copper
The “Electrification” Theme: Lafleche describes Ecora as an “electrification” company rather than just a battery metals or royalty firm.
2025 vs. 2026 Market Dynamics:
2025: Defined by precious metals (gold and silver), which dominated capital raises.
2026 Prediction: Expects equity capital markets to broaden beyond precious metals, particularly in the second half of the year, with a “flurry of issuances” in the base metals space led by copper.
Bullish Copper Thesis:
Price Consensus: Long-term consensus for copper is now just under $4.50/lb (real terms), up significantly from ~$3.00/lb five years ago.
Drivers: The structural case is underpinned by strong demand (electrification), inflation raising incentive prices for new supply, and recent supply-side disruptions (removing ~5% of global supply).
Ecora’s Exposure: Approximately 50% of Ecora’s NAV is currently exposed to copper, with 80% of the total portfolio in base metals.
Uranium Outlook
Structural Support: While uranium spot prices went sideways after a strong start to the year, Lafleche remains bullish due to the US centering its energy security policy around nuclear (e.g., the Westinghouse transaction).
Permitting Moat: Bringing new uranium projects online is extremely difficult from a permitting perspective, adding value to existing and developing assets.
Ecora Resources Portfolio & Strategy
Strategic Transition: 2025 marks a pivotal year where the company has largely completed its transition from a coal-heavy royalty business to one focused on copper and electrification commodities.
Cash Flow Ramp-Up: Nine months into 2025, Ecora’s base metals exposure is up 150% year-over-year. 2025 marks the beginning of a significant ramp-up in cash flow from capital deployed over the last decade.
Low-Cost Focus: The portfolio is deliberately built around assets in the lower 50th percentile of the cost curve. This ensures resilience through price cycles and makes development projects more likely to attract financing.
Jurisdiction: ~85% of the portfolio is located in OECD countries, focusing on well-established mining jurisdictions.
Key Asset: Patterson Corridor East (PCE)
“Generational Discovery”: Ecora holds a royalty on NextGen Energy’s PCE property in the Athabasca Basin (the “Saudi Arabia of uranium”).
Valuation Disconnect:
Analysts currently ascribe zero value to PCE in Ecora’s NAV because it is still at the drilling stage without a defined resource.
Lafleche views this as a massive opportunity, noting that NextGen has indicated PCE could potentially be similar in size to their flagship Arrow project (which underpins NextGen’s $5B valuation).
He considers it potentially one of the “best uranium royalties” in the sector.
Valuation & Catalysts for 2026
Current Valuation: Ecora shares are up ~60-70% year-to-date, yet the market price still roughly equals only the value of the producing portfolio. This implies the market is assigning little to no value to the development assets (like PCE, Santo Domingo, etc.).
2026 Catalysts:
Voisey’s Bay (Cobalt): Expected to approach nameplate capacity in 2026. Guidance has already been upgraded twice in 2025 amidst strong cobalt price tailwinds.
Mimbula (Copper): Capacity expansion continues, targeting an increase from 14kt to 56kt over the next two years.
Mantos Blancos (Copper): A feasibility study for Phase II is expected next year. This could add ~25kt of production by retreating waste material that is economic under the royalty structure.
Phalaborwa (Rare Earths): A feasibility study is expected in 2026, which is a key step before financing and construction.
Santo Domingo (Copper): De-risking events expected as Capstone Copper advances the project.
Luke Alexander - CEO, Newcore Gold - Gold (TSXV:NCAU)
Macro Outlook: Gold & Jurisdiction
Bullish Environment: Alexander notes that gold is hitting all-time highs heading into the end of 2025, with strong momentum expected for 2026 due to central bank buying and broadening investor interest
Ghana’s Strategic Advantage:
Global Major: Ghana is the sixth-largest gold producer globally, producing ~5 million ounces per year
Established Hub: It hosts four of the top 10 global gold producers (Newmont, Gold Fields, AngloGold Ashanti, Zijin)
Infrastructure: The country has a deep pool of skilled labor (supported by two mining universities) and a robust service sector, which is critical as global activity ramps up and services become constrained elsewhere
Investor Interest & Alignment
Generalist Capital: Over the last 12 months, Newcore has seen a shift from purely specialist investors to generalist investors seeking “torque” and outsized performance from development-stage assets
Inside Ownership: Management and the board own 15.5% of the company, purchased alongside investors, ensuring strong alignment
Enchi Gold Project & Exploration Strategy
Geological Potential:
The project is located on the Sefwi Bibiani Belt, which hosts major deposits like Chirano (~5.5Moz), Bibiani (~6.5Moz), and Newmont’s Ahafo mine (~20Moz)
Current resources are defined mostly within the top 80 meters (near-surface oxide), but significant upside exists in targeting high-grade shoots at depth, similar to other large mines on the belt
Drill Program (45,000m):
Phase 1 (~29,000m): Focused on resource conversion (Inferred to Indicated) to support the upcoming Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS)
Phase 2 (~16,000m): Focused on pure exploration, testing deeper targets and strike extensions. This drilling will continue through Q1 2026
Funding: The company is fully funded for the current program and PFS. Additionally, ~$10 million from in-the-money warrants is expected by February 2026, which will fund expanded drilling well into 2027
Key Catalysts for 2026
Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS):
Newcore plans to commission the PFS in early 2026 and complete it by mid-2026
This is viewed as a major de-risking event that could trigger a fundamental re-rating of the stock
Steady News Flow: With three drill rigs turning, investors can expect assay results roughly every 4–6 weeks throughout the year
Rob Weir - VP Corporate Development, Lithium Royalty Corp - Lithium (TSX:LIRC)
Lithium Market Outlook (2026 & Beyond)
From Surplus to Deficit: The narrative has shifted from “forever surpluses” to a potential “demand shock”. Weir notes that analysts (e.g., Canaccord) are now predicting a 170,000-ton deficit for 2026/2027.
Price Trend: Lithium prices are trending higher (lithium carbonate back over 100k RMB) after three years of pain, signaling a return to a bull market.
Supply Challenges:
While some mines can turn back on, restarting is not instantaneous due to permitting, labor, and capital constraints.
Meeting 2030 demand estimates (e.g., CATL’s forecast) would require 65 to 80 commercial-scale lithium mines.
Inventories have been whittled down to near zero.
Demand Drivers: The “CATL View” vs. Consensus
CATL’s Influence: Weir places heavy weight on the outlook of CATL (the world’s largest battery manufacturer), noting they have the most accurate real-time data.
CATL forecasts 4 million tons of demand by 2030, significantly higher than the consensus of 2.8 million tons.
Weir explicitly dismisses IEA forecasts as “out to lunch” and far off the market reality.
Energy Storage Systems (ESS):
ESS is growing faster than the EV sector and is a global phenomenon rather than a regional one
It is expected to account for ~30% of the market (1.4 million tons) by 2030
Lithium Royalty Corp (LRC) Overview
Financial Position: LRC has a clean balance sheet with no debt and holds approximately $27 million in cash (primarily from the partial sale of Tres Quebradas)
Portfolio Strategy:
Focuses on high-grade hard rock assets in safe jurisdictions13.
37% of the portfolio is currently in production (assets include Grota do Cirilo, Tres Quebradas, Mariana)
This is expected to grow to nearly 60% with near-term restarts, driving a potential re-rate in the stock
Share Buybacks: Management aggressively bought back almost 800,000 shares in Q2 when lithium prices bottomed at ~$700/ton, viewing it as buying “a dollar for 15-20 cents”
Key Catalysts for 2026
Finniss Mine Restart (Core Lithium):
Identified as the most material catalyst. The restart could generate $6.5M–$7.5M USD in annual revenue for LRC, instantly making the company free cash flow positive
Winsome Resources (Adina/Renard):
Weir highlights Winsome’s potential acquisition of the Renard mine infrastructure, which could save $500 million in CapEx and accelerate production by two years
LRC holds royalties on claims producing half the reserves, with technical reports estimating $300M USD in cash flow to LRC over 17 years
Case Lake (Power Metals):
Just signed an offtake agreement with Albemarle covering lithium and cesium20. Albemarle’s interest in cesium (used in defense/atomic clocks) highlights the strategic value of these assets
Sigma Lithium: Expected to sign three offtakes in 2025 and two in 2026, driven by strong appetite observed in China
James Seyffart, Bloomberg - Bitcoin, ETFs
Bitcoin & Crypto Market Dynamics
Risk Asset Correlation: Contrary to the “digital gold” narrative, Bitcoin continues to trade primarily as a risk asset, correlating more with tech stocks (like the QQQ) than safe havens. It tends to act as a safe haven only in specific scenarios like banking crises.
“Diamond Hand” ETF Holders:
Despite price volatility (down ~30% at times), ETF investors have largely held their positions.
Cumulative flows into Bitcoin ETFs remain strong (~$57 billion), with minimal outflows relative to total assets. Selling pressure has come primarily from long-term crypto insiders (”OGs”) taking profits, which Seyffart compares to an “IPO moment.”
Volatility Dampening: The institutionalization of Bitcoin via ETFs is expected to dampen extreme volatility over time. While 30% drawdowns will persist, Seyffart believes the days of 70–80% crashes may be over as portfolio rebalancing acts as a stabilizer (investors selling rips and buying dips to maintain target allocations).
Crypto Treasuries & The “MicroStrategy Play”
Saturated Market: The trend of companies adopting “crypto treasuries” (copying the MicroStrategy playbook) has slowed. Seyffart views the market as oversaturated, similar to the SPAC boom, with too many issuers chasing a weakened narrative.
MicroStrategy Anomaly: Seyffart expected MicroStrategy’s premium to compress once ETFs launched. Instead, it created a “flywheel” effect where higher stock prices fueled more Bitcoin buying. He warns this flywheel could eventually spin in the opposite direction.
ETF Outlook for 2026
“Tidal Wave” of Launches:
There are ~126 filings for crypto-related ETFs across 35 different assets. Seyffart predicts a “deluge” of launches in the next 6–12 months, followed by a wave of liquidations for products that fail to gain traction (capitalism at work).
Index Products: He expects strong demand for basket/index ETFs (e.g., “Top 10 Crypto” or “Bitcoin + Ethereum”) as investors seek diversified exposure without picking individual winners.
Industry Records: The US ETF industry is “on fire,” on track for $1.4 trillion in flows for the year (beating the prior record by ~25%) and over 1,000 new launches.
Mutual Fund Exodus: Mutual funds are seeing massive outflows ($1.1 trillion), driving issuers to launch ETF share classes or convert strategies to ETFs to retain assets.
Leverage Limits: The SEC has effectively capped leveraged ETFs at 2x, preventing the launch of 3x and 5x products. Seyffart views this as a positive move to prevent industry “black eyes” from massive blow-ups.
Key Trends to Watch
Active vs. Passive: While passive flows (like into Vanguard’s VOO) still dominate, active ETFs are booming by number of launches.
Fee Wars & “Beta Adjusted Fees”: Investors are getting smarter about fees. They will pay up for “hot sauce” (unique, concentrated, or high-alpha strategies) but refuse to pay high fees for “closet indexing” (beta).
Innovation: New areas include “defined outcome” products (capped upside/downside), option-based income strategies, and niche exposures like private credit or SpaceX (XOVR), though interest varies significantly.
Ian Harris - CEO, Copper Giant - Copper (TSXV:CGNT)
Copper Market Outlook: The Supply Cliff
The AI Factor: Harris identifies AI as the critical new driver, describing the demand as “insatiable” and a “life and death battle” for companies and nations, leading to a willingness to pay any price for the necessary infrastructure (data centers, electrification).
Supply Crisis:
“The Cupboard is Dry”: Despite record exploration budgets, new discoveries have plummeted since the 1980s.
Physical Crunch: Unlike gold or silver, which have large above-ground inventories, copper consumption is absolute. Harris notes fears over physical delivery are heating up the market.
2026 Outlook: With major disruptions (e.g., Cobre Panama still out, issues in Congo), anticipated supply deficits are hitting faster than expected, making 2026 a potentially explosive year for prices.
Industry Dynamics: The Return to Greenfields
Risk Aversion: Harris explains that after the 2008–2013 cycle, where many CEOs were fired for massive CAPEX blowouts on new builds, the industry shifted to “brownfield” expansions and M&A to minimize risk.
The Pivot: Brownfield expansions are facing diminishing returns as grades drop (average feed grade is now ~0.3%). Investors are now asking “where is future growth?” forcing majors to look back at greenfield exploration to find the necessary scale.
Copper Giant (Mocoa Project) Overview
Tier 1 Milestone: The project recently updated its resource to surpass 1 billion tons.
“Size Matters”: Harris notes that 1 billion tons is the threshold to attract a major mining company. Projects between 200–500 million tons sit in a “no man’s land” (too big for a junior to build, too small for a major).
Valuation Disconnect:
Harris identifies only ~5 other junior projects globally that are near-surface and >1 billion tons.
Peers trade at ~10–12 cents per pound in the ground, while Copper Giant trades at ~0.2 cents, suggesting a massive re-rating opportunity as the market digests the new resource size.
Geological Potential (”Tail of an Elephant”):
The deposit shows a 10-million-year fertile period between copper pulses. Only two other known districts (Chuquicamata and Rio Blanco, which produced ~60% of Codelco’s copper) have longer fertile periods, indicating immense district-scale potential.
Current drilling is likely just “one of the fingers” of a much larger system.
Catalysts for 2026
Drill Results: Continuous news flow from ongoing drilling to drive market recognition of the asset’s quality.
Colombia Elections: Presidential elections will be held in May 2026, with a new president taking office in August. This political transition is a key event for the country’s mining sector.
Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA):
Targeting completion around mid-2026 (aligning with the new administration).
The PEA will showcase the project’s infrastructure advantages (power, roads, and port access at only 1,500m elevation, compared to high-altitude Andean projects) and highlight the high-grade starter pit potential (190 million tons at ~0.94% CuEq).
Heather Exner-Pirot, Macdonald Laurier Institute - Canadian Resources
Canada’s Resource Standing
Underperformance: Despite being the second-largest country by landmass, Canada often “punches below its weight” in resource development. It ranks roughly 8th in mining but should arguably be number two given its geological endowment.
World-Class Assets: Canada holds exquisite resources:
Oil: 4th largest reserves (Oil Sands).
Uranium: 2nd largest reserves (Athabasca Basin).
Potash: #1 globally.
Natural Gas: World-class deposits in the Montney (BC/Alberta).
Geography: Unlike the US or Australia, Canada’s resources are often inland, in the Canadian Shield, or in the North, making infrastructure more difficult and expensive to build.
Regulatory Environment & Infrastructure
“Bottom 20%”: Canada typically ranks in the bottom 20% for permitting timelines.
Federal vs. Provincial:
Resources are constitutionally provincial jurisdiction, but federal regulations (like the “Impact Assessment Act” or Bill C-69) created redundancy and slowed approvals.
Since 2019, only two projects have been approved under this act.
Shift in Momentum: Exner-Pirot notes that recently, almost every province and the federal government have moved to speed up approvals, spurred partly by a loss of complacency relative to the US (Trump administration policies).
Pipelines:
Oil: The focus has shifted from sending oil south (US) to reaching Asian markets via the Pacific coast (e.g., Trans Mountain expansion).
Gas: Natural gas pipelines (e.g., Prince Rupert Gas Transmission) are easier to approve politically than oil pipelines because LNG is viewed as the “good fossil fuel” by both federal Liberals and BC NDP.
Sector Outlooks
Gold (The Bright Spot):
Top Performer: Gold is now Canada’s #2 export and the “only bright spot” in recent trade balances.
Exploration: Nearly half of all exploration projects in Canada are for gold. The last six mines brought into production were gold mines.
Advantages: Gold projects face less resistance and require less heavy infrastructure (product can be flown out) compared to bulk commodities like iron ore.
Agnico Eagle: Highlighted as Canada’s biggest mining company, now larger by market cap than the biggest oil sands company.
Industrial Metals (Copper, etc.):
Copper: Prices are rising, and new projects like the Foran mine in Saskatchewan and expansions in BC are on the horizon.
Ring of Fire: Exner-Pirot is skeptical, noting that despite the hype, it “isn’t producing a single ounce” and likely never will compare to major gold mines in Ontario.
Defense/Critical Minerals: While essential (antimony, rare earths), these markets are small in dollar terms compared to major commodities like potash, coal, and gold.
2026 Outlook
Bullish Cycle: Exner-Pirot believes we are at the beginning of a resource boom after a 10-year “bust.”
Growth Drivers:
Uranium & Gold: Already steaming ahead.
Copper & Natural Gas: Prices have started to rise in late 2025.
Oil: When oil joins the rally, she expects Western Canada’s GDP growth to move in “one direction” (up).
Policy Shift: A final investment decision on major gas infrastructure (connected to Ksi Lisims LNG) is expected in 2026.